| The forthcoming arrival at the State Department of the current Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte to take prime responsibility for Iraq is intended to allow Rice to focus her attention more broadly. However, on the two pressing issues of the day – the Middle East and Iran – the White House remains as the dominant influence in the person of Elliott Abrams, the Middle East Director at the National Security Council. Abrams, an accomplished albeit pugnacious official with wide international experience, is the US partner for Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, the Saudi National Security Adviser, with regard to the evolving joint Saudi-US program of covert action in Lebanon. (see the Swoop of January 7th). He will accompany Rice on her visit to the Middle East and Europe from January 12th-19th , but will break away to, as one official put it, “drill down” with certain key players. On Iran, a separate headache is looming. The gathering crisis over Iraq has, as one NSC official acknowledged, “made a US attack on Iran not a rational proposition.” However, White House analysts have concluded that the Israelis also discern the same US reluctance on Iran. “Therefore,” we have heard, “the Israelis may try to force our hands by acting on their own.” Ironically, US tactical intelligence on Israeli attitudes toward striking Iran is not good. |
