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Washington’s World – September 8th - September 14th, 2008

The Administration finds itself in a series of awkward contrasts. At a time when Secretary of State Rice is visiting Libya to praise its abandonment of its nuclear program, North Korea – once seen as the model for the Libyan decision – is reported to be reassembling its nuclear sites.  Meanwhile at the Nuclear Suppliers Group the US has sponsored a specially relaxed dispensation for India. In Pakistan, the US has welcomed the return of democracy but feels uncomfortable with the personalities who have emerged. One senior Pentagon contact described the newly-elected President Asif Ali Zardari as “odious.” Washington is therefore once again looking to the Pakistani military as its main conduit of influence. US Special Operations attacks into Pakistan will continue. In Iraq the White House is relieved at the return of stability but is concerned that an increasingly assertive government in Baghdad may produce a premature withdrawal of US troops. This pattern continues over Russia. In terms of rhetoric, the Administration is following a unified line of criticism.  This conceals sharp divisions about the correct policy response. A National Security Council official told us: “We cannot decide whether Russia’s actions are an aberration or whether our relations with Moscow need to be completely reviewed. In the meantime, our response takes the form of gestures like our aid package.” We are told, however, that a full review is underway regarding US policy toward energy pipeline routes in Central Asia. This is an area to which we have long drawn attention as a flashpoint in US-Russia relations. This sense of policy hesitancy continues regarding the Middle East peace process where State Department officials privately tell us: “we are exhausted. We are like the walking dead.” The question of possible Israeli action against Iran continues to cause background anxiety. 

Key Judgments

Iraq: Will Stability Sustain Itself?
With the withdrawal of the final surge troops from Iraq, the debate has shifted to the future of the US...
Japan: Farewell Fukuda
The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on September 2nd, less than a year after the exi...
Republican Policy Platform: The Global Mandate of American Values
Opening with the assertion that “our first obligation is to our country,” the Republican platform puts...
Europe and Russia: Follow the Pipelines
Vice-President Cheney’s tour aimed at shoring up US support for Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine has, as...
Syria: Strategic Realignment?
The Administration’s containment policy towards Syria has enjoyed strong support from the Washington e...
The Democratic Party’s Foreign Policy: The Watchword is Continuity
The Policy Platform released by the Democratic Party on August 15th sets out the party's vision for inter...
US-Russia Relations: Time to Draw Breath
With an uneasy ceasefire apparently in effect, the focus of US officials and Washington observers has shi...
India: Tempus Fugit
Following IAEA approval of the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, we have pointed to Washington's renewed o...
Central Asia: Sharpening Dilemmas
We have long highlighted Central Asia as a venue for US-Russia competition. The events in Georgia lend ne...
Pakistan: Back to Bedlam?
The August 18th resignation of President Musharraf means that Washington has lost the central personality...


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