Iran: Sanctions Success Eases War Pressures
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Published on: November 10th 2007 12:19:13
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Now that the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran, a vigorous debate is underway in Washington about how effective they will be. Conservative commentators are skeptical. They argue that it is only a matter of time before force becomes necessary. This is not, however, the dominant theme. Secretary of State Rice has emphasized her dual track approach of negotiations (via European partners) and sanctions. Treasury officials believe that the decision by many international banks to close their businesses in Iran show that this approach is having some impact. Personnel changes among top Iranian officials are also seen as evidence of disagreement within the Iranian leadership about how to respond to the US pressure. Intelligence community analysts see President Ahmadinejad’s removal of Ali Larijani from his position as the lead nuclear negotiator as having misfired. They cite the decision of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to retain Larijani as his personal representative as reflecting tensions between conservatives and reformists in advance of next March’s parliamentary elections. US intelligence coverage of Iran lacks depth. However, so long as this analysis of deepening economic isolation and leadership dissension persists, demands for military action will be moderated. This does not mean that US suspicion of Iran’s nuclear programs has eased. US officials quickly dismissed the IAEA’s assertions that there is no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. US political leaders of both parties are unanimous that Iran’s nuclear program has a military objective.
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