As our faithful readers know, at the beginning of each year we publish a set of “drivers” which, in our judgment, will shape US foreign policy during the year.  For 2009 the drivers are:

1.      The US domestic economic and financial crisis will be the first priority for the Obama Administration. Until this shows signs of moderating, foreign policy will take second place. It will tend to be cautious and reactive to events. While we detect few signs of isolationism, the prime purpose of US foreign policy will be to reduce present commitments to sustainable levels and to minimize large new claims on US resources. 

2.      In support of financial recovery, there will be a greater openness in Washington to a global tightening of standards and rules. Coordination between the various international regulatory agencies will increase.

3.      The substantial Democratic majorities on Capitol Hill mean that the Congress will act with self-confidence. This will put pressure on the White House in areas such as trade agreements and humanitarian interventions. With the Administration likely following a pragmatic course, Congress will represent a more ideological point of view on, for example, human rights.

4.      We expect the Obama Administration to prefer incremental changes in foreign policy rather than to launch eye-catching new initiatives. It will see few opportunities where additional US engagement promises quick success. The major change will be one of tone. The US will come closer to the international mainstream on issues like the environment. While defending the principle of American leadership, it will be sensitive to the shifts in global power represented by the rise of the G-20 countries. 

5.      In regional policy, we expect Afghanistan and Pakistan to take center stage, being viewed as a single theater of operations. In the Middle East, the Administration will take its time before engaging actively. Israel will continue to be the prime US ally in the region. On Iran, we see a willingness to explore a more conciliatory approach by the White House team – but with no lessening of opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Some tensions on these issues between the White House and Congress are to be expected.

6.      Relations with Russia and China will remain subject to competing analytic views of them as “partners” or “competitors.” Overall, however, we see the Obama Administration as interested in working hard to have meaningful partnerships with both.  Both China and Russia are seen as important players in terms of global economic recovery.

7.      The “global war on terror” will continue to lose resonance as an organizing principle of US foreign policy. But the Obama Administration will not hesitate to use military intervention to pre-empt a threat to the US. This includes unilateral US air strikes on territories where anti-US insurgents congregate.